By Eric Varney
Harris is now out… Despite the constant barrage of truth from online activists on her campaign, the reason she stated in an email to her supporters that she was dropping out was that she wasn’t a billionaire and could not fund her own campaign. But we all know that wasn’t the real reason she dropped out. She dropped out because she couldn’t figure out how to attract support from vital voting blocs to keep the feeling of ridiculousness from creeping like a erie fog.
And when your more centrist friends on social media start calling her ‘Officer Harris’, like mine have toward the beginning of the end, you know it’s time for her and the squad car to go back to the station.
The reaction on social media to her dropping out was rather embarrassing for the decorated officer, as more people either laughed or gave the ‘I told you so’ response, than people who were truly sad about her departure- still a larger number than the amount of Bloomberg supporters who exist…So, there’s that, at least. But, we all saw it coming whether we want to admit it or not.
Just a few weeks before Harris dropped out (Dec 3) and the potential moving on with the ‘dropping of the flies,’ Bloomberg announced his candidacy (Nov 24), giving goosebumps to all five of his supporters and giving Tom Steyer nightmares.
And don’t even get me started on Pete Buttigieg. This week #RefundPete is tending because early backers have found out that he wasn’t as progressive as he made himself out to be in the beginning.
I, for one, am with the refunders because Mayor Pete is not a Progressive. In fact, his main responsibility besides winning the Democratic nomination was to repair the breach between Progressives and Centrists so they would unite behind one candidate who could represent them both. He appears to have no interest in doing this because all he cares about is what Goldman Sachs tells him to care about, even if it’s to lean into a child’s face to tell them Santa isn’t real. ( A quick blurb, repairing the breach between Progressives and Centrists was the responsibility of Beto O’rourke who subsequently threw the opportunity out the window when he said he did not believe in labels. That was the moment Progressives dropped him.)
The prediction I’m making for the first four contests coming up in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina, barring any push-up competitions, Biden will come in third and Buttigieg will be in the cellar unless he can get his minority support up from 0%.
Right now, there’s a statistical tie between Sanders and Biden in Iowa, with Warren trailing both at 13%. It’s highly unlikely Sanders is going anywhere but up considering nobody is really excited about Biden or his ‘no malarkey’ malarkey. And then you have to consider ‘first fever,’ The first this to do that or the first that to do this- If Warren comes within throwing distance of looking like she has the potential to be the first female president, first fever will spread. It did with Clinton and Obama in 2008 and it did it again with Clinton in 2016.
With New Hampshire, if the history holds true, Sanders should maintain his 67.2% he won against Clinton in 2016, unless Biden tries to exchange opiates for votes- which he may have to do because it doesn’t look like he’s going to win any other way. People out there have known Bernie Sanders for a very long time.
The numbers are close in Nevada, 24% Biden to 18% Sanders and very far apart in South Carolina, 39% Biden to 18% Sanders , however, my outlook is one of optimism. The polls showing both Nevada and South Carolina could be drastically wrong like they were in 2016 for Michigan, where they predicted Clinton would win by a landslide- except that landslide was the other way around. It’s really surprising to see Biden getting minority support considering the gaff he made about poor kids being “just as bright as the white kids”. I believe that’s called a freudian slip. You’ll never catch Sanders making that mistake.
If Biden comes in third in the first four primaries his presence will be ridiculous and the media will have no choice but to prop Warren up when the time comes for him to drop out. This thing is going to come down to Sanders and Warren and it doesn’t look like they’re going to be going anywhere any time soon.